Understanding Markets

How Prediction Markets Work

Prediction markets are exchanges where you trade shares based on the outcome of future events. Each market has two outcomes: YES and NO.

Binary Outcomes

Every market resolves to either YES (1.00) or NO (0.00). There are no partial outcomes — it's all or nothing.

Full Collateralization

YES + NO shares always equal $1.00. If you own both a YES and NO share, you're guaranteed to receive $1.00 regardless of outcome.

Price as Probability

Market prices directly reflect the crowd's estimated probability of each outcome:

Interpreting Prices

A YES share priced at $0.65 means the market estimates a 65% probability that the event will occur. A NO share would be priced at $0.35.

Finding Value

If you believe the true probability is higher than the market price, buying that share has positive expected value.

Market Resolution

Markets resolve when the predicted event either occurs or the deadline passes:

Automatic Resolution

Crypto price markets resolve automatically based on oracle data at the specified candle close time.

Payout

Winning shares receive $1.00 USDC.e each. Losing shares expire worthless. Payouts are automatic — no action required.

Redemption

After resolution, you can redeem your winning shares for USDC.e through the trading panel or automatically.

Market Selection

Polyblock offers various crypto price prediction markets:

Asset Pairs

Trade predictions on BTC, ETH, SOL, and other major cryptocurrencies.

Timeframes

Choose from 5-minute (5m), 15-minute (15m), or 1-hour (1h) prediction windows. 5M is available for Bitcoin. Shorter timeframes are more volatile but resolve faster.