How to Trade on Polymarket

What is Polymarket Trading?

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market platform where you can trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Instead of trading stocks or crypto directly, you trade shares that represent the probability of an event happening — like whether Bitcoin will close above a certain price within the next hour.

Every share is priced between $0.00 and $1.00. If you buy a YES share at $0.40 and the outcome is YES, you receive $1.00 — a profit of $0.60 (150% return). If the outcome is NO, you lose your $0.40.

How Prediction Markets Work

Polymarket uses a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) model — the same system used by professional stock and crypto exchanges. Here's how it works:

1. 1
   Markets are created for real-world events

   For example: "Will BTC close above $100,000 at 3:00 PM UTC?" with YES and NO outcomes.

2. 2
   Traders place orders

   You can buy YES shares (betting it will happen) or NO shares (betting it won't). Each pair of YES + NO shares is fully backed by $1.00 USDC.

3. 3
   Prices move with demand

   As more people buy YES, the YES price rises and the NO price falls. The two always sum to approximately $1.00.

4. 4
   Markets resolve

   When the event concludes, the winning side pays out $1.00 per share. The losing side pays out $0.00.

Getting Started

The fastest way to start trading on Polymarket is through Polyblock, which gives you a professional trading terminal with custodial wallets — no MetaMask or Web3 setup needed.

1. 1
   Create a free account

   Sign up at polyblock.trade with your email. No credit card required.

2. 2
   Deposit funds

   Send USDC to your custodial wallet. Polyblock manages the wallet for you — fast and simple.

3. 3
   Choose a market

   Browse live markets in the trading terminal. Each market shows the current YES/NO prices, volume, and time until resolution.

4. 4
   Place your trade

   Select YES or NO, choose your order type (market or limit), set your amount, and execute.

Placing Your First Trade

Let's walk through a real example of placing a trade on Polyblock:

Example: BTC 15-Minute Market

You see a market: "Will BTC close above $98,500 at 2:15 PM UTC?" The current YES price is $0.45 and the NO price is $0.55.

• If you think BTC will be above $98,500 — Buy YES shares at $0.45. If correct, each share pays $1.00 (122% profit).
• If you think BTC will be below $98,500 — Buy NO shares at $0.55. If correct, each share pays $1.00 (82% profit).

The trading terminal shows you the full orderbook depth so you can see exactly where liquidity is before placing your order.

Understanding Order Types

Reading the Orderbook

The orderbook is the heart of any trading terminal. It shows all pending buy and sell orders at every price level:

• Bids (green) — Buy orders — traders willing to buy at these prices. Higher bids = more bullish sentiment.
• Asks (red) — Sell orders — traders willing to sell at these prices. Lower asks = more bearish sentiment.
• Spread — The gap between the highest bid and lowest ask. Tighter spreads mean more liquid, efficient markets.
• Depth — The total volume at each price level. Larger depth means your orders are less likely to move the price.

Polyblock's trading terminal streams orderbook updates in real-time via WebSocket, so you always see the latest state of the market.

Risk Management

Prediction markets have a built-in risk feature: your maximum loss is always the amount you paid for your shares. You can never lose more than your initial investment.

Key Risk Management Principles

1. 1
   Size your positions appropriately

   Never risk more than 5-10% of your total balance on a single trade. Prediction markets can be volatile.

2. 2
   Understand the timeframe

   15-minute markets are fast and require quick analysis. 1-hour markets give you more time but prices move more gradually.

3. 3
   Use limit orders for precision

   Don't chase prices with market orders. Set limit orders at your target entry and let the market come to you.

4. 4
   Diversify across markets

   Don't put all your capital into one market. Spread across BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP to reduce correlation risk.

Advanced Tips

Automate Your Trading

Once you're comfortable with manual trading, explore Polyblock's automation tools. Build AI-powered strategies in the Playground that trade 24/7 based on technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands.

Study the Strategies Marketplace

Browse the Playground marketplace to see what strategies other successful traders are using. You can subscribe to proven strategies or create your own and earn fees from subscribers.

Watch the Spread

When YES + NO prices sum to less than $1.00, there's an arbitrage opportunity. Buy both sides for a guaranteed profit at resolution. Polyblock's terminal highlights these opportunities automatically.