Overview
Polymarket and Kalshi are the two dominant prediction market platforms, but they serve different audiences and operate under different models.
Polymarket
Crypto-native, built on Polygon. Uses USDC. Global access (with some restrictions). Highest volume in the industry. Peer-to-peer order book.
Kalshi
US-regulated (CFTC). Uses USD via bank transfer/card. US-only (primarily). Regulated exchange model. Growing market selection.
Markets & Selection
Polymarket
- Thousands of markets — Politics, crypto, sports, entertainment, science, weather, and more.
- Crypto price markets — Short-term BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP predictions with 5-minute (BTC only), 15-minute, and 1-hour resolution.
- Community-created — Markets can be proposed by users, leading to a wide and diverse selection.
- Global events — Elections, geopolitics, economic data, celebrity events — virtually anything.
Kalshi
- Curated markets — Kalshi creates and manages all markets. Quality-controlled but more limited selection.
- Focus areas — Economics (Fed rate decisions, GDP), weather, politics, and financial markets.
- Regulatory approval — Each market type must be approved by the CFTC, which limits what they can offer.
- No crypto markets — Kalshi does not currently offer cryptocurrency prediction markets.
Fees
Polymarket Fees
Zero trading fees on the native platform. Minimal gas fees on Polygon (~$0.005). Third-party tools like Polyblock charge a small per-trade fee.
Kalshi Fees
Exchange fees vary by market. Typically charged as a percentage of profit or per-contract fee. No gas fees (traditional finance rails).
Polymarket's zero-fee structure (on the native platform) is a significant advantage for active traders. Even when using third-party tools like Polyblock, the total cost is generally lower than Kalshi's fee structure for frequent traders.
Regulation
Polymarket
Polymarket operates as a decentralised protocol on the Polygon blockchain. It's not regulated as a US exchange. US users face restrictions — Polymarket settled with the CFTC in 2022 and has geo-restricted certain features for US IP addresses.
Kalshi
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) — the first federally regulated prediction market exchange in the US. This means it's fully legal for US residents and operates under strict regulatory oversight.
Liquidity & Volume
- Polymarket volume — Hundreds of millions of dollars in monthly volume. The most liquid prediction market globally, especially during major events.
- Kalshi volume — Growing but significantly smaller than Polymarket. Liquidity can be thin on less popular markets.
- Spread comparison — Polymarket typically has tighter spreads due to higher volume and more market makers.
- Peak events — During US elections, Polymarket has processed over $1 billion in volume. Kalshi sees elevated but lower volumes.
Trading Experience
Polymarket (Native)
- Web3 wallet required — MetaMask or similar. Need to manage gas tokens and sign transactions.
- Order book trading — Full CLOB with limit and market orders.
- Basic interface — Clean but limited. No advanced charting or analytics.
Polymarket via Polyblock
- No wallet needed — Custodial wallets with instant execution.
- Professional terminal — Real-time orderbook, WebSocket streaming, historical charts.
- Automation — AI-powered strategy builder, backtesting, and 24/7 automated trading.
Kalshi
- Traditional account — Sign up with email, fund with bank transfer or card. Familiar fintech experience.
- Simple interface — Clean, beginner-friendly. Limited advanced features.
- No automation — No built-in strategy builder or bot support.
Which Should You Choose?
Choose Polymarket (via Polyblock) if...
You want crypto markets, maximum liquidity, professional trading tools, automation, and the widest market selection. Best for active and serious traders.
Choose Kalshi if...
You're US-based and need regulatory compliance, prefer traditional finance rails (bank/card), or primarily want economics and weather markets.